Economy

U.S. Oil Output Wouldn’t Shield Consumers From an Iran-Related Price Shock

More domestic drilling might modestly lower world prices, while broader EV incentives could reduce consumers’ exposure to an oil shock.

Jun 11, 2026 • 5 min read

Economy

Producer Prices Rise 1.1% in May as Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated

May producer prices beat forecasts, while consumer inflation expectations stood at 4.8%; a Cleveland Fed nowcast puts PCE inflation near 4%.

Jun 11, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

AI Geopolitical Risk Index Tracks Global, Oil and US-China Tensions

Matteo Iacoviello and Jonathan Tong’s AI-GPR offers daily measures of geopolitical risk, including Middle East oil and US-China relations.

Jun 11, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Everyday Price Measures Show Greater Inflation Than Headline CPI

Since January 2025, everyday prices are estimated to have risen 8.6%, eroding perceived wage gains more than headline CPI suggests.

Jun 10, 2026 • 5 min read

Economy

Australia’s Growth Is Slowing, but Forecasts Still Point to Expansion

Q1 growth missed expectations and domestic demand weakened, while income held up. Oil prices and export exposure cloud the outlook.

Jun 08, 2026 • 5 min read

Economy

Canada May Employment Indicators Show Latest Data Point to Q2

Canada’s latest employment and GDP observations align with Q2, while quarterly indicators and the C.D. Howe council’s statement add recession context.

Jun 07, 2026 • 5 min read

Economy

Farm Input Costs and Export Disruptions Weigh on Wisconsin Producers

Fertilizer and energy costs remain elevated, while Hormuz shipping delays threaten farm exports. More federal payments may cushion losses.

Jun 06, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Health and Government Jobs Account for More Than Half of Payroll Growth

Since January, health, social services and government added 225,500 of the 409,000 payroll jobs, under EJ Antoni’s definition of “unsustainable.”

Jun 06, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Treasury Yields Rise as Real Rates Lead; Yield Curve Returns to Positive Slope

Five-year real yields have reached a new high, while DKW inflation expectations match their prewar level and five-year CDS implies 0.64% default risk.

Jun 06, 2026 • 5 min read

Investing

May Jobs Gain Surpasses Expectations as Wage Measures Fall

May payrolls rose by 72,000, but differences across employment data and falling real wage measures temper the headline strength.

Jun 05, 2026 • 5 min read