Banking

Trump Says Iran Agreed to Bar Both Developing and Acquiring Nuclear Weapons

Trump says a proposed US-Iran agreement bars Iran from developing or acquiring nuclear weapons; Tehran hasn’t publicly confirmed the terms.

Jun 12, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

US Says Two Iranian Drones Were Shot Down Near Strait of Hormuz

A US official says two drones were downed after an alleged threat to commercial vessels; Tehran says a vessel was intercepted, while the strait remain...

Jun 12, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Trump Says Iran Conflict Has Effectively Ended, Claims Nuclear Deal Reached

Trump said negotiations with Tehran had produced an agreement barring nuclear weapons and that people would return home soon.

Jun 12, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

AI Geopolitical Risk Index Tracks Global, Oil and US-China Tensions

Matteo Iacoviello and Jonathan Tong’s AI-GPR offers daily measures of geopolitical risk, including Middle East oil and US-China relations.

Jun 11, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Everyday Price Measures Show Greater Inflation Than Headline CPI

Since January 2025, everyday prices are estimated to have risen 8.6%, eroding perceived wage gains more than headline CPI suggests.

Jun 10, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Health and Government Jobs Account for More Than Half of Payroll Growth

Since January, health, social services and government added 225,500 of the 409,000 payroll jobs, under EJ Antoni’s definition of “unsustainable.”

Jun 06, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Treasury Yields Rise as Real Rates Lead; Yield Curve Returns to Positive Slope

Five-year real yields have reached a new high, while DKW inflation expectations match their prewar level and five-year CDS implies 0.64% default risk.

Jun 06, 2026 • 5 min read