Economy

Imagining: Would a Biden “Drill, Baby, Drill” Regime Have Mitigated a Iran-War Induced Cost-Push Shock

Heritage Foundation’s Chief Economist EJ Antoni speculates: Well, I can imagine. The world price would be slightly lower, but we wouldn’t be insulated...

Jun 11, 2026 • 5 min read

Economy

Trump: “I Love the Inflation”

Which is good insofar as we’re going to get plenty more of it (see quote here). PPI upside surprise +1.1% vs. +0.7 m/m (Bloomberg). Core slightly belo...

Jun 11, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Invaluable New Geopolitical Risk Indexes: AI-GPR, GPR-Oil, and More

Readers of Econbrowser know that I’ve put a lot of stress on using high frequency measures of uncertainty and risk to interpret recent events. One of...

Jun 11, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Headline CPI Inflation at Consensus, Real Wages Continue to Be Eroded

Everyday prices nowcasted to outstripping measured CPI and subindices: Figure 1: CPI-all urban (bold black), CPI wage earners and clerical (green), CP...

Jun 10, 2026 • 5 min read

Economy

Slowdown in Australia

Given positive Q1 GDP growth (albeit with downside surprise of 0.3% vs 0.5% q/q Bloomberg consensus, vs. 0.4% Melbourne Institute nowcast), there’s be...

Jun 08, 2026 • 5 min read

Economy

Monthly Business Cycle Indicators: Canada

Friday release of May employment (labor force survey): Figure 1: Monthly employment from Labor Force survey (blue), nonfarm payroll employmet from Sur...

Jun 07, 2026 • 5 min read

Economy

Trump in Chippewa Falls: Promising Input Price Declines to Farmers

From WisPolitics: “We’re going to come out and your fertilizer prices are going to go way down just like they were four months ago. Your fertilizer’s...

Jun 06, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

“Sustainable” Employment Growth Is Only at +73K

At least according to EJ Antoni’s definition, in his critique of employment growth under the Biden administration: gov’t and the gov’t-dominated healt...

Jun 06, 2026 • 5 min read

Banking

Yield Curve Steepening: Expected Inflation vs. Real Rates (or Something Else)

Big jumps in yields; as shown at the five year maturity, the move is evident in both nominal and real yields: Figure 1: Treasury 5 year yield (blue, l...

Jun 06, 2026 • 5 min read

Investing

Employment and Wages: Alternative Measures

Nonfarm payroll employment upside surprise from CES. CPS indicates something less positive, as does ADP, trendwise. Figure 1: Change in nonfarm payrol...

Jun 05, 2026 • 5 min read