Brokers clearly face a challenging future, but the good news for their risk manager clients is that they are preparing for it and, by most indications, are up to the task.
Only a few years ago, insurtech leaders confidently predicted that intermediaries would be replaced by bots, arguing that their lightning-fast technology would inevitably supplant more ponderous humans. While insurtechs have made inroads into personal lines and small-business insurance, people still appear to have the upper hand when it comes to larger, more complex risks.
Relationships, market savvy, creativity and years of individual and institutional expertise still matter. If anything, the recent surge in broker recruitment and the litigation that has followed underscore just how important people remain to the business. There would be little point in fighting over producers if they could simply be replaced by machines.
Nevertheless, the investment community remains skeptical. The stock prices of publicly traded brokerage firms fell sharply earlier this year and have yet to fully recover. The declines were blamed on fears of disintermediation and declining insurance prices, which have begun to weigh on brokers’ revenue growth.
Those concerns should not be dismissed. Artificial intelligence has already been cited as a reason for job cuts by at least one of the world’s largest brokers, and several others have launched cost-cutting initiatives centered on implementing new technology. Inevitably, some jobs will disappear, and the employees performing them may not yet have the skills needed to transition into new roles, but that broader societal challenge extends well beyond the insurance industry.
It seems more likely that the role of the insurance broker will evolve rather than disappear. Many firms are investing in technology to empower their employees and prepare them for what comes next. That may be a future in which brokers spend less time transferring risk and more time helping clients mitigate it, or perhaps they will be developing products and services that cannot yet be imagined.
Brokerage executives cannot run counter to investor sentiment forever, but they are rightly focused on transforming their businesses rather than winding them down.
The changing insurance market presents a separate challenge, albeit one brokers have managed before. Property rates are declining sharply in some segments, and the tailwind the hard market provided is dissipating in others.
But brokerages are once more adapting and seeking new avenues for growth. Today, many are dedicating significant resources to helping companies manage risks associated with data centers, which some view as a once-in-a-generation opportunity. If that route narrows or is blocked, other emerging risks and opportunities will inevitably arise for those prepared to pursue them.
The brokerage industry has endured repeated predictions of its demise and emerged stronger. There is little reason to believe this time will be any different.