Oil Prices Jump 2% on Saudi Attacks as OPEC Sees Demand Rebound
European gas-price assumptions repeatedly converge…
The leading economics blog online covering financial issues, geopolitics and trading.
Europe's main natural gas price benchmark is headed for multi-year highs despite the "energy ceasefire" reported between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend and improving Strait of Hormuz energy flows. Europe is heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter without Qatari LNG exports and with storage levels well below 15-year lows.
Dutch TTF futures trade around 83 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since early 2023. The September pullback to around 70 euros per megawatt-hour was short-lived.
"Even without Qatari LNG exports, Europe is injecting gas into storage at a faster-than-expected pace. European storage is over 73% full, despite earlier expectations of not getting to 70% before winter starts," Citi analyst Maggie Xueting Lin wrote in a note.
However, EU gas storage levels are still well below seasonal norms. The 15-year average sits around 90%.
In late August, when Dutch TTF futures traded around 67 euros per megawatt-hour, Goldman commodities expert Samantha Dart said prices would need to rise near 100 euros "to discourage Asia LNG demand, thereby freeing incremental cargoes to be sent to Europe to help manage European gas storage levels."
Citi's Lin identified three factors easing Europe's NatGas balance ahead of winter: industrial demand destruction, warm weather, and an unexpected shift in Ukraine's role from net importer to net exporter:
Lin is bearish on EU NatGas prices, maintaining a fourth-quarter TTF base case forecast of 56 euros. She believes industrial demand destruction is easing the NatGas shortage amid continued disruptions to Qatari LNG exports.
The leading economics blog online covering financial issues, geopolitics and trading.
Standard Chartered Says Hormuz Oil Flows Are Far From Normal
How Low Can the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Actually Go?
Kpler Suspects Gulf Producers Are Paying Iran for Safe Passage
Why Record Crude Output Can’t Solve America’s Diesel Crisis
Is the West’s 100-Year Venezuela Oil Bet About To Backfire?
The materials provided on this Web site are for informational and educational purposes only and are not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice.
Nothing contained on the Web site shall be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell a security to any person in any jurisdiction.
Merchant of Record: A Media Solutions trading as Oilprice.com