White House Weighs Defense Production Act as U.S. Refineries Maxed Out
Julianne Geiger is a veteran energy journalist and market analyst with more than a decade of experience covering the global oil and gas sector. Her…
The IEA just took another 1.4 million barrels per day out of its 2026 global oil supply outlook, and it no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, according to a new agency report released on Friday.
Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the 4.3-million-bpd decline the agency forecast just one month ago. The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027.
Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August, leaving inventories at 7.8 billion barrels, their lowest since 2023. In July, the IEA had put the cumulative inventory loss since the Iran war began at 410 million barrels.
Saudi Arabia accounted for a large chunk of August’s deterioration. Saudi crude supply plunged 2.3 million bpd during the month to just 6 million bpd, its lowest level in more than three decades, after attacks hit facilities and shipping routes. OPEC+ production fell 1.8 million bpd to 38.8 million bpd.
The IEA now expects global oil consumption to fall by 2.5 million bpd this year, compared with the 1.6-million-bpd contraction it forecast in August. Record fuel prices are forcing consumers to use less, particularly as refinery disruptions tighten diesel and other product markets.
That puts the IEA nearly 2.9 million bpd away from OPEC on 2026 demand. OPEC said Thursday that it still expects global oil consumption to grow by 380,000 bpd this year.
The two forecasters converge in 2027. The IEA expects demand growth of 2.6 million bpd next year, while OPEC sees 2.36 million bpd.
UAE Rethinks 5-Gigawatt AI Campus After Iran Targets US Assets in Gulf
Drone Strikes Hit Saudi Arabia’s Vital East-West Oil Pipeline
Julianne Geiger is a veteran energy journalist and market analyst with more than a decade of experience covering the global oil and gas sector. Her…
Bessent Says Strait of Hormuz Obsolete Within Two Years
Satellite Images Show Seven Tankers Loading Iraqi Crude at Once
Qatar and Kuwait Restore 70% of Pre-War Oil Exports Through Hormuz
World's Largest Electric Plane Flies for 27 Minutes on $5 of Power
Oracle’s $165 Billion Data Center Plan Hits a Gas Pipeline Delay
Russia’s Diesel Exports Crash to Multiyear-Low amid Tight Global Market
Electric Aviation Won't Kill Jet Fuel - But It Could Take the Best Routes First
Hormuz Attacks Push Oil Toward $100 Despite US Crude Build
The materials provided on this Web site are for informational and educational purposes only and are not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice.
Nothing contained on the Web site shall be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell a security to any person in any jurisdiction.
Merchant of Record: A Media Solutions trading as Oilprice.com