Weather relief remains conditional
Europe’s gas market may get some help from El Niño this winter, but the relief scenario depends on an unusually large rise in temperatures across the continent. Rystad Energy estimates that winter temperatures would need to average about 2 degrees Celsius above historical norms for European LNG demand to fall to roughly last winter’s level. Its base case points to a smaller warming effect, leaving imports higher year on year.
That distinction matters because weather affects gas demand through more than a broad seasonal average. A warmer winter can reduce the need for heating, but the timing and location of cold spells also shape how much gas consumers and power generators draw. A warm stretch in one part of the season may not offset a sharp cold period elsewhere. The annual balance depends on the pattern, not just the headline forecast.
The difference matters as Middle East hostilities have raised LNG prices and curtailed deliveries from the Persian Gulf. Milder weather could offset some of that pressure, but current storage and import estimates leave limited room for a moderate El Niño to erase Europe’s additional supply needs. The numbers here are underwhelming for anyone expecting weather alone to resolve the region’s supply gap.
Strong event, uncertain regional effects
Forecasts issued in July 2026 put the probability of El Niño developing over the following nine months at 100%, easing to 97% by March 2027. They also assign an 81% chance to the relevant temperature index reaching at least 2.0 degrees Celsius and a 97% chance of it exceeding 1.5 degrees. That points to a potentially strong event, possibly the most intense since 2015–2016.
Those probabilities describe conditions in the Pacific, not a guaranteed temperature outcome for Europe. El Niño can shift broad atmospheric patterns, but its effects vary by region and season; forecasts made months ahead also carry uncertainty. A strong signal in one part of the climate system doesn't translate neatly into a particular winter across Europe.
A very strong event in January 2016, for example, coincided with an unusually severe cold-air outbreak in East Asia. The example is a useful reminder that a global climate label can coexist with very different local weather. It doesn't disprove the broader tendency toward warmer European winters, but it does caution against treating the Pacific index as a direct European thermometer.
Rystad’s review of winter temperatures from 2001 to 2025 finds that El Niño periods have generally been warmer than average across most of the regions it tracks. The effect isn’t uniform: Western Europe tends to warm more than Southern Europe, possibly because El Niño interacts with the North Atlantic Oscillation, which shapes winds, precipitation and temperatures across the continent.
That regional variation matters for gas demand. Heating needs are tied to local conditions, while Europe’s gas market connects supply and consumption across borders. A milder outcome in one area may not fully offset colder conditions elsewhere, and weather can change within a winter. Here's the thing: a continental average can be useful for modeling, but it can conceal the places and weeks that drive demand peaks.
Historically, an index reading near 2.0 degrees Celsius has been associated with about a 1-degree rise in European winter temperatures. A 2-degree temperature increase itself has been rare: Rystad identifies only two previous instances, in December 2015 and February 2024. That gap between the index and the European temperature outcome is central to the market question. A strong El Niño raises the odds of warmth; it doesn't establish that Europe will reach the extreme warming needed for the bearish demand case.
Import needs hinge on the temperature outcome
Rystad’s base case assumes European storage will be 76% full by November 1. With lower starting inventories and reduced 2026 LNG imports tied to the U.S.–Iran war, it estimates the region needs about 15.15 million tonnes more LNG year on year through June 2027.
Storage is a starting buffer, not a substitute for supply through the full heating season. The level entering winter affects how much gas must be bought or withdrawn later, while import availability and demand determine how quickly inventories change. If you're working in this space, the estimate is best read as a seasonal requirement under stated assumptions, not as a fixed forecast of cargoes that will arrive.
Under a moderate scenario, with winter temperatures 1 degree Celsius above average, lower heating demand would reduce that requirement. Europe would still need at least 7 million tonnes more LNG than it imported in the previous winter. That leaves import demand on a rising path, a mildly supportive backdrop for gas prices.
That said, the price effect isn't mechanical. Weather is one influence among supply availability, storage levels and competition for LNG. A lower heating burden could ease the call on imports, yet a supply interruption or stronger demand elsewhere could alter the balance. The reported scenarios show how sensitive the import requirement is to temperatures; they don't settle how prices will respond.
A 2-degree warming scenario would change the balance. Rystad estimates that it could bring European LNG imports close to the Winter 2025/2026 level, easing the upward pressure on import volumes and weighing on gas markets. But the historical record offers only two comparable instances, so that outcome remains an outside case despite forecasts favoring a strong El Niño.
And yet, the upside for demand relief is real if the warmth persists across the winter. The point is that the scenario depends on a rare regional result, not merely on El Niño developing. Mild relief. Full relief is another matter.
What the scenarios mean for the market
The working assumption is that El Niño will trim Europe’s LNG demand without eliminating the year-on-year increase. The more bearish outcome depends on sustained, broad warming across the winter months—a regional result that the strength of the Pacific event alone can’t guarantee.
For buyers and traders, this creates a weather risk with two distinct parts: the probability of a strong Pacific event and the chance that it produces enough warmth in Europe to materially reduce imports. The first is currently high in the cited forecasts. The second remains uncertain, and the historical examples suggest the most consequential temperature outcome has been uncommon.
Forecasts could still shift as winter nears; Rystad notes that expectations strengthened ahead of the 2023–2024 event. Revisions will matter because they can change estimates of heating demand before the season is underway. What this means for you is that the headline El Niño probability is only one signal; the projected European temperature path is the one more directly tied to the import balance.
For market participants, the key signal is whether revisions point toward the rare 2-degree European warming scenario or leave the moderate case, and its higher import requirement, in place. If forecasts continue to favor only modest warmth, Europe’s need for additional LNG remains the more defensible reading of the estimates. A strong climate event may offer relief, but the market case for counting on it is still thin.