Researchers at Colorado State University on Wednesday reduced their forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing increased confidence that a moderate to strong El Niño will develop during the peak of the season.
In their updated outlook, CSU researchers said they now forecast 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, down from their April forecast of 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The probability of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall is 24%, well below the average of 43% from 1880 to 2020.
CSU said the anticipated moderate to strong El Niño is likely to drive well-above-normal levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, conditions that typically suppress hurricane development.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” CSU said.