The timing seems off to me, as on apparent new news within the last hour (as of 4pm CT)…
Inefficient market? These markets are small enough ($6 million) that somebody who is slow at reading the news can wake up, notice what’s happening and change pricing with a single bet.
Off topic – Democrats are back in the hunt for a Senate majority:
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/19/troy-jackson-likely-maine-senate-nominee-platner-01004490
Troy Jackson has enough pledged delegates to become the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Maine.
In polling prior to a rape allegation being lodged against Platner, Jackson polled better against Susan Collins than Platner did – leading Collins, rather than running behind. Jackson has repeatedly won elections in Maine, unlike Platner.
Jackson is a progressive along the lines of Bernie Sanders and AOC. He may be able to heal the Democtrats’ progressive/centrist split, in Maine at least. That would help with campaigning and turnout.
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